Public Beta · Reference parameters captured Nov 2026. Decision scope, margins and HS codes are from the MOIT decision as reported in trade press; trade statistics are Mysteel-cited figures. This page is compliance context, not legal advice — counsel should be consulted for participation in the investigation. Spotted a discrepancy? Tell us — this page exists to be challenged.
Key Numbers (Decision 2948/QD-BCT Ledger)#
| Item | Reference value |
|---|---|
| Instrument | MOIT Decision 2948/QD-BCT, issued and effective 6 Nov 2026 |
| Proposed dumping margins | China 76.6% · Indonesia 75.5% · Taiwan 51% |
| Product scope | Cold-rolled stainless coils, sheet, strip ≤3.5 mm; annealed or not, pickled or not; C ≤1.2%, Cr ≥10.5% |
| Excluded | >3.5 mm; clad/laminated multi-layer; coated/plated products |
| HS codes | 7219.32.00, 7219.33.00, 7219.34.00, 7219.35.00, 7219.90.00, 7220.20.10, 7220.20.90, 7220.90.10, 7220.90.90 |
| Precedent | Same scope as the 2014–Nov 2024 case (China 17.94–31.85%; Indonesia 10.91–25.06%; Taiwan up to 37.29%) |
| Exposure | China ~66% of Vietnam CR stainless imports (2024); Jan–Oct 2024 China exports to Vietnam 119,000 t, +56.5%; Jan–Nov 2025 479,800 t, +14% |
| Immediate action | Interested-party registration with MOIT (importers, exporters, distributors, users) |
The cargo under investigation: cold-rolled stainless coils — the product class where China supplies roughly two-thirds of Vietnam's imports. Duty decisions are made on documents; the yards that keep the best records get the best outcomes.
1. What the Decision Actually Says#
Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade issued Decision 2948/QD-BCT on 6 November 2026, effective the same day, initiating an anti-dumping investigation into cold-rolled stainless steel originating in China, Indonesia and Taiwan. The applicant's submitted evidence alleges dumping margins of 76.6% for China, 75.5% for Indonesia and 51% for Taiwan. These are initiation-stage proposed figures — the definitive margins, if duties are imposed, follow the investigation — but initiation numbers frame the negotiation space, and a 76.6% opening bid for China is unusually aggressive.
The product definition is precise and buyers should check it before reacting: coils, sheet or strip of thickness ≤3.5 mm, annealed or not, heat-treated or not, pickled or not, carbon ≤1.2% and chromium ≥10.5%, with surfaces including No.2D, No.2B, No.3, No.4, HL, BA and DULL (including very thin non-metallic functional films such as anti-fingerprint, passivation or temporary protective layers). Exclusions: products over 3.5 mm, clad/laminated multi-layer products, and coated or plated products. HS coverage: 7219.32.00 through 7219.90.00 and 7220.20.10/.90, 7220.90.10/.90.
2. The Precedent: This Scope Has Run Before#
This is not new terrain. Vietnam ran a case on the same product scope from 2014, extended it after a 2019 sunset review, and terminated it in November 2024 with China duties then at 17.94–31.85%, Indonesia at 10.91–25.06%, and Taiwan up to 37.29%. Termination loosened the valve: China's cold-rolled stainless exports to Vietnam accelerated visibly through 2024–2025 — which is precisely the import growth this new investigation cites as injury evidence. The policy rhythm matters for planning: Vietnam's trade-remedy cycle on this product has a ~decade wavelength, and 2026's initiation sits at the expected point of that cycle.
Inside the scope: a slitting line processing the ≤3.5 mm cold-rolled strip now under investigation. The decision's thickness and exclusion lines decide which coils are in — and which are legitimately out.
3. Exposure Map: Who Should Worry#
Mainland China supplied roughly 66% of Vietnam's cold-rolled stainless imports in 2024 — Vietnam's dominant source by a wide margin over Korea (~18%), Taiwan (~2%), Indonesia (~2%) and Malaysia (~0.9%). On the export side, Mysteel-cited figures put China's CR stainless exports to Vietnam at ~119,000 t in Jan–Oct 2024, up 56.5% y/y (about 5.1% of China's total CR coil exports), with a single-month November 2024 print of ~17,100 t — the second-highest in seven years. Total stainless exports to Vietnam (all product forms) ran ~479,800 t in Jan–Nov 2025, +14% y/y, making Vietnam one of China's top-two stainless destinations in some months.
Three buyer profiles carry direct exposure: Vietnamese converters importing Chinese CR coil for further processing; ASEAN distributors holding Vietnam as a re-export hub; and Chinese mills for whom Vietnam is a growth market. Each has a different mitigation lever — origin diversification, product-scope re-checking (the ≤3.5 mm and exclusions lines are where tariff engineering legitimately happens), and interested-party participation.
4. The Corridor Angle: Freight and Duty Are Separate Variables#
For readers of this site the operational point: nothing in Decision 2948/QD-BCT changes the physical corridor. The Qinzhou–Haiphong lane remains the shortest documented China–Vietnam water route (breakdown here), and RCEP origin rules continue to govern tariff preference independently of anti-dumping duties (checklist here). What changes is the landed-cost stack: a 76.6% duty on declared value dwarfs any freight differential. Exporters quoting 2027 volumes should run both variables — lane cost and duty scenario — in the cost simulator, and Vietnamese importers should pressure-test whether Form E preference still applies to their specific HS lines in scope.
5. Action Checklist (Next 90 Days)#
- Verify scope match: measure thickness and check exclusions before assuming coverage — 3.5 mm and the clad/coated carve-outs are the operative lines.
- Register as an interested party with MOIT if you import, export, distribute or use the investigated products; registration is the gateway to questionnaire access and hearing rights.
- Freeze the file: assemble export price, domestic price, cost and shipment records for the investigation period — trade-remedy outcomes are document games.
- Model the duty scenarios: initiation margin (76.6%) vs the 2014–2024 precedent band (17.94–31.85%) vs termination — quote 2027 contracts with a duty-variation clause.
- Counsel up: trade-remedy participation deadlines are short; this page is context, not legal advice.
FAQ#
Is the 76.6% duty already in force?#
No. It is the proposed dumping margin cited at initiation. Duties, if imposed, follow the investigation; Vietnam may also apply provisional measures mid-process. The 2014–2024 precedent ran duties of 17.94–31.85% on China.
My product is 3.6 mm — am I in scope?#
The scope covers thickness ≤3.5 mm; over 3.5 mm is excluded, as are clad/laminated and coated/plated products. Verify against the decision's full chemical and surface criteria before drawing conclusions.
Does RCEP/Form E preference neutralize this?#
No. Anti-dumping duties apply on top of normal tariff treatment; origin preference and trade-remedy measures are separate layers of the landed-cost stack.
What changed after the November 2024 termination?#
China's CR stainless exports to Vietnam accelerated — Jan–Oct 2024 was +56.5% y/y before termination even completed. That post-termination surge is the import-growth evidence underlying the new case.
Methodology & Data Sources#
Decision number, effective date, proposed margins, product scope, exclusions, HS codes, the 2014–2024 case history and prior duty rates are as reported in trade-press coverage of MOIT Decision 2948/QD-BCT (6 Nov 2026). Trade statistics (China CR stainless exports to Vietnam, market shares, 2025 totals) are Mysteel-cited figures within the same reporting. Corridor context cross-links to prior site coverage. No legal advice is provided; participation decisions should be taken with counsel.
- Decision 2948/QD-BCT: initiation, 76.6%/75.5%/51% proposed margins, scope, exclusions, HS 7219/7220 series — trade press (Toutiao syndication), 6 Nov 2026
- Precedent case history: 2014 initiation, 2019 sunset extension, Nov 2024 termination, prior duties 17.94–31.85% (China) — same reporting
- Trade data: Jan–Oct 2024 China→Vietnam CR stainless 119,000 t (+56.5%), ~66% 2024 import share; Jan–Nov 2025 total stainless 479,800 t (+14%) — Mysteel-cited, same reporting
- Corridor context: Qinzhou–Haiphong lane — shipping cost breakdown; RCEP origin rules — Form E checklist
Get a Tailored Logistics Assessment#
Model the duty scenarios alongside lane cost in the cost simulator — Qinzhou–Haiphong and canal routings priced, 2027 lockage included — or apply to be listed in the verified supplier directory. Reference values only; not a formal quote.